Monthly strategy reports and newsletter
In this section you will find the monthly reports and newsletters of the Allweather strategy.
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This month Central Bankers met at Jackson Hole. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the current interest rate level is restrictive, however they are cautions about the inflation which is still too high and the unemployment rate that is still too low. The conclusion is that they will continue to remain hawkish (i.e. tight monetary policy). That includes a potential interest rate rise in the meeting on the 19-20 September if the economy continues to heat up.
"No end to inflation"
The Fed chairman Jerome Powell admitted at the central bankers meeting in Portugal that he does not see inflation gettting below the 2% target before 2025. That is why we are expecting two more inerest rate rises of 25 basis points by the end of 2024.
May has seen the equity indices recovering strongly desipite the higher rates across the Globe. Part of the reason for that is the recovery of deal making and trading in the corporate world, which was pretty much frozen in 2022 and the begining of this year. However the biggest reason for the rally was the surge in tech stocks, which all seem to be profiting from the AI boom. And it is driven mainly by the large tech companies like $GOOG, $NVDA and $MSFT.
In April the Q1 US GDP figures were released where the economy grew by 1.1% (below the 1.9% expectation). The economy is clearly slowing down, but the inflation continues to be persistently above the 2% target. This is a problem for the FED.
Banking problems continue with First Republic Bank going into receivership and eventually being bought by JPM.